Includes bibliographical references and index.

Decisions made on scant information : overview / Terry Williams -- Projects, their quality at entry and challenges in the front-end phase / Knut Samset -- Implementing strategy through project management : the importance of managing the project front-end / Peter W.G. Morris -- Scenarios planning / Kees van der Heijden -- Up-front assessment of needs / Petter Næss -- Front-end alignment of projects : doing the right project / Terry Cooke-Davies -- Using soft systems methodology to structure project definition / Mark Winter -- Optimism and misrepresentation in early project development / Bent Flyvbjerg -- Decision behaviour : improving expert judgement / Geir Kirkebøen -- Useful heuristics / Benjamin Scheibehenne and Bettina von Helversen -- Expert judgement of probability and risk / George Wright, Fergus Bolger and Gene Rowe -- Evaluation of risks in complex problems / Gregory S. Parnell -- Obtaining distributions from groups for decisions under uncertainty / Roger M. Cooke -- Exploratory quantitative analysis of emergent problems with scant information / Tim Bedford -- Analyzing information : techniques and analyses / Bjørn Andersen -- Parametric analysis / Philip Pugh -- The impact of new information / Kjell J. Sunnevåg -- The complexity of decision-making in large projects with multiple partners : be prepared to change / Roger Miller and Brian Hobbs -- Project profitability from society's point of view / Kåre P. Hagen.